As the league stage of ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 Towards the end, there remains a tight race for the final semi-final spot. Although Sri Lanka’s chances look dim, the team still remains a mathematically viable, albeit challenging, path forward. Their qualification depends entirely on a combination of an impressive performance in their last match and several favorable results from their rivals.
Semifinal spot secured: Triangular battle for final spot
The picture at the top of the table is clear: Australia, England and South Africa have already booked their places in the semi-finals of the tournament. This has led to a tense competition between India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka for the last remaining knockout spot.
currently, Sri Lanka Sits at 4 points with a highly damaging Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.035. This leaves them well behind India (+0.526) and New Zealand (-0.245), making the final effort exceptionally difficult.
Walking the tightrope: Sri Lanka’s path to inevitable victory
For Sri Lanka to make this remarkable comeback and seal a place in the semi-finals, three important results need to come:
A decisive victory: Sri Lanka will have to defeat Pakistan by a big margin in their last league match. This is important to give the necessary boost to their NRR.
India’s stumble: India will have to lose both their remaining matches – against New Zealand and Bangladesh – to remain stable on their current points table.
New Zealand’s defeat: New Zealand will need to lose against England in their final group match to ensure they do not cross the four-point mark.
Overcoming NRR losses: Why does margin of victory matter?
The biggest hurdle for Sri Lanka is their current net run rate. Even if the results involving India and New Zealand match exactly, Sri Lanka will still find itself tied on points with New Zealand.
In such a scenario, the final semi-finalists will be decided by the better NRR. Given that Sri Lanka’s current NRR (-1.035) is dramatically worse than New Zealand’s (-0.245), their win against Pakistan should be emphatic to reduce this deficit. The team needs an emphatic win to take their NRR past New Zealand, a task that requires both skill and luck.
If Sri Lanka manages to overcome this complex set of requirements, it will be celebrated as one of the most memorable comebacks in World Cup history. However, if they miss out, the final semi-final spot will ultimately be claimed by India or New Zealand, depending on their final match day results.
This article was first published here WomenCricket.comA Cricket Times Company.
