Australia suffered a crushing defeat against Sri Lanka in their last chance to make it to the next stage of the tournament. They were brought into this scenario after losing the second game of the competition against Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe have a chance to pull off another big upset in their next match against Ireland on the 17th.
After Australia’s consecutive defeats against Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka, their chances of qualification have diminished by a strange margin. With 10 teams still in the running for the remaining three spots in the ICC T20 World Cup Super-8, here is a detailed breakdown of the teams’ qualification scenarios.
Qualification scenario of all teams in ICC T20 World Cup 2026
With England and West Indies qualifying for the next stage of the tournament, there is nothing left for Group C; However, for all other groups, only one place has been finalised. Many teams from Groups A, B and D are still in the race for second place.
Group A Super 8 qualification scenario after Pakistan’s defeat to India
India has already qualified from Group A, while America, Pakistan and Netherlands are in the race for the second place in the Super-8. India is undefeated with three wins, and the United States and Pakistan have won 2 so far.
The scenario seems to be more inclined towards Pakistan, as their last match is to be played against Namibia. The United States can come into this scenario only if Namibia defeats Pakistan.
The Netherlands also have a slim chance, but that would be subject to miracles. This will happen only if Namibia beats Pakistan and Netherlands beats defending champions India by a miraculous margin.
Group B Super 8 qualification scenario after Australia’s consecutive defeats
Possibly, the most surprising qualification scenario in this edition of the T20 World Cup. Zimbabwe has pulled off a big upset against Australia and hence, the African team can advance to the next stage of the tournament. Surprises are common in the ICC T20 World Cup, because last time America and Afghanistan reached the Super-8 by defeating Pakistan and New Zealand.
This time, while Sri Lanka has already qualified, Zimbabwe has a good chance of making the Super-8s with a win against Ireland. The only chances for Australia would arise if Zimbabwe lost against Ireland and Sri Lanka, and they could win by a big margin against a weak Oman side. However, as of now, it looks like it is the end of the campaign for the Australian team. For Ireland to qualify, the other two teams, Australia and Zimbabwe, would have to lose all their final games in the group stage.
Group C Super 8 qualification scenario
West Indies and England have reached the Super-8, while Scotland, Italy and Nepal have crashed out of the season with multiple defeats.
Group D Super 8 qualification scenario
The most competitive group in the ICC T20 World Cup 2026, which will see some of the toughest matches between New Zealand, South Africa and Afghanistan. At the moment, it looks like New Zealand can qualify as the second team, as their final match is to be played against Canada.
Even if they lose to Canada, they could qualify further if they lose their last group game with Afghanistan or UAE, or they could manage to win, but not have enough of a margin to take them past the Blackcaps’ score.
Canada needs to win all its remaining matches, and so do Afghanistan and UAE. Afghanistan’s qualification chances can only get a chance if New Zealand loses to Canada, which seems an unlikely scenario.
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