India’s chances of qualifying for the 2026 T20 World Cup have dwindled with West Indies’ 107-run win against Zimbabwe in the Super 8 Group 1 match. Against Zimbabwe, West Indies not only scored the crucial two points but also took their net run rate to +5.350.
South Africa, who defeated India on February 22, are second in the Group 1 points table with a net run rate of +3.800. So far, India, South Africa, Zimbabwe and West Indies have played one match each, and each will play 2 more matches before the conclusion of the Super 8 stage.
South Africa can save India in the title race
India’s chances of reaching the semi-finals look less due to net run rate rather than points. Due to the defeat against South Africa, India’s net run rate has become -3.800. To qualify for the next round, the Men in Blue will have to keep an eye on the South Africa vs West Indies match, which will be held on February 26 in Ahmedabad.
If the Proteas win against the Caribbean team, South Africa will remain on top on points and West Indies will drop down the rankings despite a higher run rate. Furthermore, India need to win both their remaining matches against West Indies and Zimbabwe respectively.
If the Indian national cricket team drops points again, their chances of playing the semi-finals will be ruined. So, for India, to play in the next stage of the tournament, the primary criteria is to win 2 out of 2 matches by a big margin.
Equation for India to reach the semi-finals of T20 World Cup 2026:
1. Will have to win by a big margin against Zimbabwe and West Indies, so that the total number of points and net run rate can increase.
2. South Africa needs to win its remaining two Super 8 matches, including against West Indies.
3. If India gets points from their remaining two matches, their total points will be 4, and if South Africa remains undefeated after playing 3 matches, their total points will be 6.
4. If West Indies loses to South Africa and India then its points will be reduced to only 2. That means South Africa and India will qualify for the semi-finals.
What if each of the 3 teams has 4 points?
In case of a three-way tie on 4 points, candidates for the semi-finals will be selected on the basis of net run rate. Then due to low net run rate, India may be out of the title race. Therefore, South Africa and West Indies have higher chances of qualifying for the semi-finals from Group 1 of the Super 8 stage due to their higher run rates compared to India and Zimbabwe.
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